NEONI’s Nursing Forecast Model Makes Predictions for Northeast Ohio’s Future Nursing Workforce

The Center for Health Affairs, the leading advocate for Northeast Ohio hospitals, and its workforce initiative, NEONI, have moved away from the use of static data reports of the past to create NEONI’s Nursing Forecast Model, a tool that accurately predicts the future nursing workforce needs for the 17-county Northeast Ohio region.

By engaging the work of Craig Moore, Ph.D., an economist from Massachusetts, along with Patricia Cirillo, Ph.D., of the local consulting group Cypress Research, NEONI was able to develop a future nursing workforce predictive supply and demand model for licensed practical nurses, registered nurses and advanced practice nurses covering 17 counties in Ohio, including:

• Ashtabula
• Ashland
• Cuyahoga
• Erie
• Geauga
• Huron
• Lake
• Lorain
• Mahoning
• Medina
• Portage
• Sandusky
• Stark
• Summit
• Trumbull
• Tuscarawas
• Wayne

The NEONI Forecast Model provides a much more precise way of assisting nursing leaders and educators in their efforts to plan and prepare a future nursing workforce for decades to come. The model incorporates a number of data sets including population, demographics, health insurance levels, economic conditions, level of patient care mix (acute and long-term care), as well as the current supply and demand for the Northeast Ohio region’s future nursing workforce.

As part of the data-gathering component of the study, all hospitals and schools of nursing in the 17-county area were surveyed, along with select long-term care facilities and home health agencies. This was accomplished through the use of institution-specific surveys. Individual participant survey information was kept strictly confidential, and only aggregated data are available to other participants and the public.

As a result of NEONI’s Nursing Forecast Model, regional information is available to participating organizations and others to assist in strategic planning efforts. The information sheds light on how factors such as population demographics, health insurance, and regional economic conditions will affect the overall supply and demand for nurses, thus allowing them the opportunity to put plans in place to address anticipated shortages within the future nursing workforce. The model is ever changing and growing, so data, such as annual census data, will be accepted and incorporated into the model at any time.

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, The Mt. Sinai Health Care Foundation and the M.E. & F.J. Callahan Foundation are the primary funders of the project. The Northwest Health Foundation administers funding on behalf of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The Center for Health Affairs will also provide a level of funding, including in-kind support by a project director throughout the process. The total cost for the project is estimated at $100,000.

For more information on NEONI’s Nursing Forecast Model, please contact Lisa Anderson, MSN, RN, vice president of member services, The Center for Health Affairs, at 216.255.3660 or at lisa.anderson@chanet.org.